The Uncertainty Mindset 2019-2020

A state of not-knowing, which can occur in the context of uncertain situations or uncertain futures. Uncertainty is inextricably bound up with innovation.

True uncertainty is not the same as risk. Risk arises when the exact outcome is unknown but all the possible outcomes and their respective probabilities are known—and really how common is that? Yet people still insist on viewing the world and acting using the risk mindset instead of the uncertainty mindset. (For more on this, see risk vs. uncertainty.)

In this newsletter, I write about at least four sources of true uncertainty:

1. Unknown-ness from emergent interactions of calculable unknowns.
2. Unknown-ness from insufficiently precise knowledge about calculable unknowns.
3. Unknown-ness from entirely unanticipated outcomes.
4. Unknown preferences about outcomes.

For the first three, see #1: Varieties of the unknown; for the fourth, see #33: Preference uncertainty.

See also: ambient uncertainty, causality, complexity, control, coronavirus, delusion, inefficiency, interconnected, interdependent, knowability, negative capability, risk vs. uncertainty, resource with no predefined form, surprise and delight, tradeoffs.