The Uncertainty Mindset 2019-2020

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#21: The consequences of inaction

vaughn2nd January 2021 at 12:39pm

This issue was me getting riled and worried about people and governments not doing anything meaningful about coronavirus because they were using the risk mindset in a situation of enormous uncertainty.


  1. Coronavirus is a threat of enormous uncertainty, yet many people, businesses, and governments continue to approach it with the risk mindset—they avoid taking seemingly unreasonable countermeasures that are inconvenient, politically unpopular, and economically damaging. This is delusional.
  2. The consequences of not taking those unreasonable countermeasures are impossible to calculate accurately in advance—but they are likely to be staggeringly enormous and not merely economic but also human and social. They are likely to far exceed the cost of taking unreasonable countermeasures.
  3. Mounting evidence suggests that any countermeasures that look like overreaction are not only sensible, they may even be inadequate. Taking unreasonable measures early—despite their huge economic cost—is the only sane thing to do, because we have so much to lose.

You can find it here: #21: The consequences of inaction